Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.414364 2.565698 2.731764 2.929653 3.162050 3.430405 3.770238
2025-08-24 2.240932 2.428505 2.644037 2.915394 3.256568 3.685061 4.290544
2025-08-31 2.123236 2.331874 2.579429 2.903907 3.334072 3.913767 4.820931
2025-09-07 2.049566 2.276475 2.553236 2.929277 3.453228 4.211131 5.540300
2025-09-14 1.934601 2.160302 2.439262 2.825072 3.376496 4.205181 5.759223
2025-09-21 1.874582 2.107770 2.400998 2.816215 3.430697 4.405946 6.435106
2025-09-28 1.804945 2.038410 2.335258 2.762145 3.408892 4.475553 6.879377
2025-10-05 1.786355 2.032862 2.352439 2.824889 3.572354 4.900908 8.468974
2025-10-12 1.778898 2.040671 2.387124 2.915041 3.792689 5.503919 11.511564
2025-10-19 1.738688 2.002607 2.355589 2.901978 3.834910 5.753713 13.929333
2025-10-26 1.707777 1.975417 2.337400 2.907335 3.909766 6.104778 18.576390
2025-11-02 1.660395 1.923910 2.281927 2.849555 3.860356 6.134845 21.258104
2025-11-09 1.623931 1.887402 2.248256 2.827588 3.882839 6.383392 31.057954
2025-11-16 1.591249 1.854743 2.218398 2.809282 3.909708 6.659914 62.844129
2025-11-23 1.562174 1.825930 2.192660 2.795626 3.943846 6.979742 NaN
2025-11-30 1.544622 1.812335 2.188409 2.817064 4.053141 7.616880 NaN
2025-12-07 1.497081 1.755242 2.117168 2.720201 3.898351 7.234975 NaN
2025-12-14 1.474876 1.733257 2.097782 2.711411 3.934739 7.604561 NaN
2025-12-21 1.443242 1.697093 2.055806 2.661248 3.874622 7.571525 NaN
2025-12-28 1.440307 1.701429 2.075037 2.718765 4.064233 8.746540 NaN
2026-01-04 1.443055 1.713825 2.106960 2.801356 4.331505 10.809033 NaN
2026-01-11 1.423844 1.693895 2.087832 2.789292 4.362750 11.545353 NaN
2026-01-18 1.409311 1.680346 2.078163 2.794146 4.439205 12.835563 NaN